The Global Economic and Financial Outlook Report for the fourth quarter of 2023 released by the Bank of China Research Institute recently shows that the global energy market is in a tight supply state, and the rebalancing of the European market is crucial.

In the third quarter of 2023, global commodity prices bottomed out and rebounded, fluctuating upwards to the highest point of the year. In July, global commodity prices rose strongly, and due to the expected rise in the US economy's soft landing, Saudi Arabia's production reduction, and extreme weather, crude oil prices rose significantly, with most major metal prices rebounding. The RJ/CRB commodity price index rose from 260.9 on July 3 to 282.2 on July 31, an increase of 8.2%, becoming the largest monthly increase of the year. In August, global commodity prices were supported at the bottom, showing a trend of first falling and then rising. The overall price of crude oil and natural gas shows a fluctuating pattern, with major metal prices fluctuating. In September, global commodity prices rose to a year high of 284.9, followed by a slight decline.

According to the above report, global food security is at a "turning point", with a shortage of rice supply and soaring rice prices impacting vulnerable economies around the world. On August 10th, the international rice price (with a crushing rate of 5%) skyrocketed to the highest point of $647.9/ton for the year, an increase of 25.1% from early July and 35.9% from early January. In the fourth quarter of 2023, international rice prices are still facing upward pressure in the short term due to the continued restrictions on rice exports from multiple countries. At the same time, the rise in global food prices has a greater impact on low and middle-income countries, and the increase in imported energy and fertilizer costs may force some countries to reduce investment, leading to a decrease in agricultural productivity, a decrease in domestic food supply, and a significant increase in the likelihood of a food crisis.